A “jobless recovery”?

|

Labour leaders met with staff of the World Economic Forum in Geneva last Friday. One of the issues raised was the notion of a “jobless recovery”. In other words, the risk that stock markets would rise while unemployment got worse. A “jobless recovery” would mean returning to a casino economy based on speculation, with wins for a few and losses for many. It would perpetuate inequities. It could not be sustainable.

Real recovery will have to be led by consumers, and that requires raising incomes, with more equity of distribution. One of the big challenges said Neal Kearney of ITGLWF is “how to keep workers in the middle of a recession: downturns should be used for upskilling”. Philip Jennings of UNI stressed the risks of youth unemployment and threats to social cohesion. Anita Normark of BWI said we had to deal with climate change while charting a road to recovery. Tim Noonan of ITUC gave an example of the impact of an unexpected event such as the outbreak of swine-flu on employment. Lee Howell from the WEF staff made a remark that caught my attention “the current recession is transformational. But we don’t know what’s on the other side”. Rick Samans, WEF Managing Director, agreed that the global community was accumulating risks. “One of the lessons from this crisis is that we should be on the watch for other big risks” he said.

In an attempt to get a better understanding of global risks, the WEF has launched an ambitious network of Global Agenda Councils, some 70 of them, linking together about 1500 leaders from all regions, from business as well as civil society, to discuss challenges ranging from economic balances, to ecosystems, to pandemics, to terrorism. Global Unions are invited to play an active role. EI will be invited to councils on Skills Gap and Technology and Education.

The meeting concluded with a discussion that I initiated on “Investment in people” and what that really means. For talk of a “jobless recovery”, is like saying a “recovery without people”. And that just doesn’t make sense!

Next: Shaping up for the G20 in Pittsburgh

1 Comment:

Tamas said...

Even if the "real recovery" is lead by consumers, the jobless recovery might a phenomenon that we will see. (http://globalstructures.blogspot.com/2009/06/jobless-recovery-scenario.html) There is a host of reasons why it would be natural for companies to invest into the productivity of their labour force rather than the the expansion of the labour force. A trade union forced policy against it might slow the recovery down, and thus make the entire economy pay the price.

Post a Comment

 

Education International 2009