G20 : They were singing our song

The G20 Leaders’ Statement from Pittsburgh reads well. They put “quality jobs at the heart of the recovery”. They will “strengthen support for the most vulnerable”. They will establish “a framework for strong, sustainable and balanced growth”. As they said in their first sentence, they met “in the midst of a critical transition from crisis to recovery, to turn the page on an era of irresponsibility…”. The ITUC was quoted as saying: “the Leaders got it” – on the need to place the emphasis on jobs, as the path to sustainable recovery. They also said some good things about training and skills. But the contribution of general education to society was not mentioned. They endorsed a proposal from President Obama to convene a meeting early in 2010 of G20 Employment and Labour Ministers, to support the ILO jobs pact and consider skills development policies. They reaffirmed their “historic commitment to meet the Millennium Development Goals”.

These commitments and affirmations were not included by chance. They were the result of a coherent case put toward systemically by Global Unions with significant work in many different capitals and at the EU. In Pittsburgh, in the space of two hours, labour leaders met with 10 out of the 20 leaders, including Presidents Obama of the US and Lula of Brazil, as well as the heads of key international agencies. The advocacy work was done, and done well.

Today the ITUC and TUAC stated: “Progress in Pittsburgh, but still far to go", especially on measures to give real assurance that it will never happen again. But youth unemployment was not mentioned.

Nevertheless, Global Unions got several statements they wanted. Now comes the hard part – getting governments around the world – whether in the G20 or not, to follow through on the commitments. This is going to be tough.

If we read the G20 statement carefully, it’s quite specific on issues like financial regulation. Remember, the G20 is still essentially the creature of Finance Ministries and Central Banks. On jobs, skills and training the statement is long on principle, “singing our song”, but short on specifics.

The G20 will replace the G8 as the preeminent summit on global economic issues. 2010 will be the transition year, with Canada hosting the G8 and G20 in June. So this gathering of the heavy hitters in the global economy is here to stay. But what will count most is what happens far below the summit – in the countries and communities of the world.

Link for G20 statement: http://www.pittsburghsummit.gov/mediacenter/129639.htm

Pittsburgh : the recovery summit ?

This week, on 24 and 25 September, Pittsburgh will host the third G20 Summit since the outbreak of the financial crisis just over a year ago. Will this be the recovery summit? Will these 20 Leaders take measures to prevent a repeat of the near financial meltdown of 2008, and most of all, lay the groundwork for sustainable recovery of the global economy?

Remember, even if stock markets have been rising, and some indicators in the US and Europe have removed the worst of gloom and doom, unemployment is still on the rise, and public sector budgets are being hit badly in many countries. In some case, as in Central and Eastern Europe, public revenues have already dropped dramatically. In other areas, public revenue cuts are only now starting to bite because of time lags. Even where national stimulus packages have helped, local government revenues have dropped drastically in many countries, in the US, Chile and Sweden, for example, and that means schools and teachers have been hit.

Earlier this month, there was a lot of talk of “exit strategies”, which is code for winding down stimulus packages and cutting back on public spending in order to reduce debt. There is less talk of that in the final days leading up to the Summit. Australian PM Kevin Rudd, UK PM Gordon Brown, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, have all said that talk of ending stimulus packages is premature.

Some issues being highlighted:

From leaked letter from the Chancellor of Germany, the PM of Britain and the President of France:
3Stop financial practices that lead to the crisis, including inflated and inappropriate bonuses.

From leaked letter from the White House (by the US “Sherpa”, the top official advising the President):
3Address imbalances in the global economy
3Establish a framework for sustainable growth
3Prioritize jobs and skills for the 21st century
3Strengthen recovery in the poorest countries

By the IMF Director General:
3Rebalance growth – move away from countries having large surpluses while others have large deficits. The Ambassador of China to the US, however downplays the issue of global imbalances, and calls for action to avoid protectionism.

By the World Bank President:
3Don’t leave the poor behind

The US delegation, host for the Summit, is circulating a proposal to support the ILO Jobs Pact and to convene a meeting of ILO Labour Ministers and top education officials in the US in early 2010. The Obama administration underlines that skills development is fundamental to durable recovery. If this proposal is approved by the other G20 leaders, we have a good basis for moving forward with EI’s agenda – Invest in education: the smart strategy for recovery.


Source: Global Unions Washington Office

Links:

Global Unions Pittsburgh Declaration (pdf) http://download.ei-ie.org/Docs/WebDepot/0909t_g20_Pittsburgh_en.pdf

Proposed US workforce policy proposal (pdf) http://download.ei-ie.org/Docs/WebDepot/G20%20Pittsburgh%20US%20proposal.pdf

Letter by Michael Froman (pdf) http://download.ei-ie.org/Docs/WebDepot/Froman%20Letter%20on%20Pittsburgh%20Summit%20Agenda.pdf

Letter by Angela Merkel, Gordon Brown, Nicolas Sarkozy (pdf) http://download.ei-ie.org/Docs/WebDepot/lettreMerkelBrownSarkozy.pdf

Is the crisis nearly over? Mixed signals

OECD is seeing some improvements in the global economy. Acting Chief Economist Jorgen Emeskov told the media last Thursday that recovery seemed to be arriving quicker than expected, but that economic activity would remain weak. This followed the annual meeting of Central Bankers held 12 days earlier in the US, commented on this blog (see http://fundingeducation.blogspot.com/2009/08/sustainable-global-recovery.html). The Financial Times leapt on the OECD’s cautious announcement with a front page headline: “G20 plans for stimulus exit”. But when G20 Finance Ministers met in London over the weekend to prepare for their Leaders’ Summit in Pittsburgh on 24-25 September they were more careful, saying stimulus measures had to be kept in place into 2010.

As the OECD released its Interim Assessment, TUAC’s Economic Policy Group worked on the Global Unions’ Statement for the Pittsburgh G20. Our statement, “The Pittsburgh Declaration”, underlines points referenced recently here, most of all that unemployment continues to rise, even as the financial sector begins to recover. “The collapse in employment … has become the single biggest threat to the economy”, we will say. The call from Global Unions will be “The G20 Summit must, first and foremost, be a Jobs Summit”.

Tensions are running high. After top OECD staff saw the working draft for our Declaration, specifically a criticism of IMF and OECD responses to public sector deficits and proposals to curb public spending (sounds familiar?), OECD Secretary General Angel Gurria invited TUAC General Secretary, John Evans, and Economic Policy Group Chair, Ron Blackwell, for a talk. When John and Ron returned to our group they said the talk had been positive, as Mr Gurria understood the support of TUAC affiliates for OECD involvement in the G20 process, but also understood that unions would be especially vigilant about OECD positions, as we will for those of other agencies. It was also understood that OECD will continue to support strongly the involvement of the ILO.

The Head of OECD’s Employment Labour and Social Affairs Directorate (ELSA), John Martin, also told the TUAC group that the Secretariat’s analysis was trying to take into account whether a recovery would begin soon, although he recognized that it is still “difficult to say”. John Martin’s Directorate is responsible for preparing a meeting of Labour Ministers from the OECD countries, to meet in Paris 28-30 September, one week after the Pittsburgh Summit. The Chairs of TUAC’s Economic and Education Working Groups, Ron and myself, will join the TUAC delegation to the consultations and an open forum on “How to help workers weather the storm”.

Education and training – keys to sustainable recovery

Meanwhile, a positive message coming through all the mixed signals leading up to the G20 Summit is that education and training is among the keys to sustainable recovery. One of the problems with the financial markets, Ron told our group, is that they operate much of the time within incredibly short time-frames, and fail to address long-term imbalances. Training strategies, on the other hand are inherently medium to long-term. One proposal being circulated within the US delegation, for Pittsburgh, is that the US host a meeting of Labour Ministers and top education officials early next year, with education and skills development as a major component. AFL-CIO backs this proposal, and EI will talk with US affiliates NEA (which joined EI at the TUAC meeting last week) and AFT (affiliated to AFL-CIO) about how best to marshall support for the US proposal.